The 5 NBA Rookies I'm chasing the most.
Taking a stab at ranking the five rookies that I think, in five year's time, we'll all wish we had hung onto their rookie cards when they were still relatively cheap.
One of the best things about predicting the future is that we all have a chance to look back on those predictions later and laugh about how bad most of them were. I figured why should I miss on the fun?
I’m going to take a stab, a few months into the season, at predicting the top five rookies in terms of future collectibility.
There’s an important distinction there. I’m not saying these are the best rookies so far. I think there are some rookies off to an great start that I’m not as sold on long-term, and some rookies off to really rough starts who I still think have future star potential.
I’m also not saying they’re the five best players in the future. Some players are really good, but just don’t get the kind of love from the hobby they likely deserve. Case in point, Kevin Durant. I’m not a huge fan of his, but the guy is one of the best scorers we’ve seen and has been one of the top couple players in the league for most of his career. He’s a sure-fire, first-ballot hall of famer, but in terms of collectibility, he doesn’t get a ton of love.
The way I’m thinking about this list is, in five years, which of these rookies are the most likely to be the ones where we all wish we had hung onto their rookie cards when they were cheap.
I’ll probably adjust as time goes on, and if nothing else, it might be pretty funny to look back at this list in a couple of years and see how wrong I was.
Here goes.
1. Victor Wembanyama
This one is pretty easy, I think. While you can make a really strong argument for Chet Holmgren as the Rookie of the Year so far, Wemby is still the easy pick for the most likely to be a hobby darling.
He came in with the (admittedly overused) “generational talent” tag and an incredible amount of hype, and while the Spurs themselves have been miserable, he has been incredible.
Through his first 24 games, Wemby is averaging:
19.0 points per game (1st among rookies)
11.0 rebounds (1st among rookies)
2.7 assists (3rd among rookies)
1.3 steals (1st among rookies)
3.0 blocks (1st among rookies)
To put those numbers in perspective, here’s what LeBron’s stats were through his first 24 games:
18.1 points per game
6.3 rebounds
6.2 assists
1.3 steals
0.7 blocks
Or Durant’s, maybe a little more similar comparison in playing style:
20.3 points per game
4.5 rebounds
1.9 assists
1.0 steals
1.2 blocks
I’m not saying he’s better than or as good as those players (silly disclaimer, but I’ve seen people interpret this kind of data that way). I just bring it up to point out his rookie year is really good.
He’s got some efficiency concerns for sure. He’s shooting only 44% from the field and 28% from three. But efficiency concerns are to be expected from a 19 year old who is already the focal point of a struggling and young offense. Efficiency concerns and rookies basically go hand in hand. Through 24 games, LeBron shot 41% from the field (29% from three) and Durant shot 39.7% from the field (30.7% from three).
Basically, we were told he was really, really good and he’s been really, really good. We’ve seen some ridiculous stuff sequences from him that just make you laugh at the absurdity of it. One of my favorite things to watch has been the reactions of other players mid-game as Wemby does his thing.
The one knock I could potentially see keeping him from being a hobby darling is that his personality is…well…he seems every bit the classic Spur. So far he’s been very modest, level-headed, not very flashy—that’s not a class recipe for super-stardom (just ask those extremely undervalued Tim Duncan cards).
But the attention on him is unlikely to fade anytime soon and as bad as the Spurs are today, they are stacked with draft picks and salary cap room so it would be surprising to not see them contending in the not so far off future which always provides a hobby boost.
His shot will get better and start to fall more. With experience, he’ll learn to be a little more aggressive attacking rather than settling. And the Spurs will start to build that roster around him. Considering his age and what he’s already doing, his upside is through the roof.
2. Chet Holmgren
I mentioned Chet a bit above, and I know this isn’t his draft class, but he’s a rookie in the eyes of the NBA, so I’m counting him in this group.
In just about any other year, Wemby’s numbers would put him so far out in front of the crowd that there would be no discussion to have at all about who would be Rookie of the Year. But this year, Chet’s around, and he’s been everything he was promised as well.
Chet has already had more than his fair share of “did I really just see that” moments. Like Wemby, he’s breaks the mold of what we expect from big men. He’s athletic, with a good shooting touch. He’s a terror around the basket, blocking 2.8 shots a game. And while his efficiency has dipped after a scorching start to the year, he’s still shooting it at a really nice clip (52% from the field, 37% from behind the arc).
Chet’s easily the most polished player in my top five, which kind of makes sense given that he’s also the oldest rookie on the list (ever so slightly older than my #5 choice, and a few years older than everyone else). Chet certainly looks like a superstar waiting to happen. He’s also on a team that, if they can keep that core of SGA, Chet, and Jalen Williams (another guy I’m really high on long-term) together, should
I think Chet is going to be phenomenal for a long-time, and if I was the NBA, I’d be marketing the heck out of the him and Wemby to build up some of that classic head-to-head drama we all love.
As a fan, I’m sitting back and enjoying the show as we see two incredible rookie seasons. As a collector, I’m going after Chet’s rookie cards almost as aggressively as I am Wembanyama’s.
3. Scoot Henderson
First, let me be clear: there is a massive drop after Wemby and Chet in terms of my confidence in my picks. I’m being aggressive chasing Wemby and Chet rookie cards. Everyone else on this list I’m being a lot more cautious with.
Coming into the season, Scoot was the probably the most hyped rookie outside of Wembanyama, with more than a few folks saying he would have been the #1 pick most years.
Then he was bad. Like, really bad.
His horrendous start to the season let a lot of the steam out of his hype train, but so far in December we’re seeing him start to flash the upside.
Through the nine games he played in October/November, Scott was averaging:
8.3 points per game
4.3 assists
67% free-throws
19.4% 3PT
33.3% FG
In the 8 games in December, he’s averaging:
13.9 points per game
4.6 assists
89% FT
25.9% 3PT
40.7% FG
That’s a significant turnaround, and hints at some of the upside he has. He’s fairly fresh off a 23 point, 10 assist game against the Jazz. We’ve also seen the type of scoring upside he possesses in his G-League performances.
Scoot, like Bilal and Wemby, is only 19. He’s rough, but has plenty of time to polish his skills. He’s still my favorite rookie card chase after Wemby and Chet.
4. Bilal Coulibaly
This pick might be a bit surprising to some, but I think Bilal has shown really significant upside and a playing style that will appeal to many. I’m pretty sold on him as a future star in this league.
The pre-draft assessment of Bilal was that he was a raw offensive prospect with elite defensive upside. We’ve seen the defensive upside, but so far he hasn’t looked all that raw on the other end of the floor.
He’s shooting just under 42% from behind the arc. That number is probably not sustainable—he’s only attempting three shots from behind the arc a game so the sample size is small, and he hasn’t been very good on three-pointers where he’s covered—but that doesn’t matter too much at this point. Even expecting some regression, you can see the potential.
I always like to look for sequences in games where a player has flashes a brief flurry of that potential to take over, and Bilal has given us a few moments like that already. He’s athletic and when he attacks the basket, highlights ensue.
He’s also only 19 years old, so there is so much room for further development.
5. Brandon Miller
Brandon Miller rounds out my top five “most likely to be collectible” rookies so far in the season. While more than a few (myself included), questioned the Hornets taking Miller over Scoot with the #2 pick, so far it’s hard to argue with the early returns.
Miller is (somewhat) quietly putting up some really strong numbers. Through 23 games, he’s averaging:
14.8 points
4.0 rebounds
2.2 assists
0.7 steals
43% FG
37.8% 3PT
Those are really strong numbers. He’s also been pretty consistent, scoring in double figures in 21 of his first 23 games.
He’s flashed both the ability to shoot from outside, and to attack the basket off the dribble. Collectors love prolific scorers, and Miller has all the tools to be one for a very long time.
Honorable Mention
While I’m not chasing the following players cards quite yet, I think that, so far, they’re the most likely to make me regret that in the future and I’m watching them pretty closely:
Dereck Lively II. He’s been great, I’m just not sure yet how high I think his ceiling actually is. He still feels more like a really solid starter than a future super star to me.
Ausar Thompson. Again, Ausar has been fantastic. I think part of his outstanding play is just being in a perfect position for him right now. I wouldn’t be surprised to find myself regretting not having more of his cards in the future though.
Brandin Podziemski. He’s got that basketball instinct, and a style of play that is going to quickly build up a fanbase.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. What a perfect fit he’s been for the Heat! I don’t think his upside is anywhere near as high as everyone else on this list, but I have been known to be wrong before.
Keyonte George. The kid can score for sure and, as I said earlier, collector’s love scorers.